2015 National League East Projections

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X-Washington Nationals 93-69

Over the past few seasons the Washington Nationals have emerged as the team to beat in the National League East, but it hasn’t amounted to any success in the month of October. The Nationals have won the NL East in two of the last three seasons, but have failed to win a playoff series and with parity and free agency reigning supreme in Major League Baseball, championship windows don’t remain open for a long time.

Matt Williams

For Nationals manager Matt Williams, he can rely on having one of the best offenses in the National League. Last season the Nats scored 686 runs which was third in the NL and you can expect more of the same in 2015. Injuries limited outfielder Bryce Harper to just 100 games last season, but Williams and the Nats are hopeful that the modern day “Charlie Hustle” is able to remain healthy as he has the potential to be one of the best five-tool players in the game. After leading the Nationals in home runs last season, it wasn’t a surprise that first baseman Adam LaRoche was allowed to leave as a free agent to join the Chicago White Sox as two is a crowd at first base. Ryan Zimmerman has been the face of the Nationals franchise for quite some time now, but a shoulder injury has hampered his play at third base. The Nats did use Zimmerman sparingly in the outfield last season, but he’ll have a new home this season at first base. Zimmerman is coming off of his worst season as a pro as injuries limited him to just 61 games. But the Nationals are hopeful that Zimmerman can return to being the player that has averaged hitting 25 home runs and 96 runs batted in for his MLB career. Zimmerman’s ineffectiveness at third base has seen the rise of Anthony Rendon at the hot corner for the Nats. Rendon was the Nationals first round selection in 2011 and after batting .287 with 21 home runs and 83 runs batted in last season, he should be in the running to be the NL MVP in 2015. The past few seasons have seen Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond emerge as not only one of the best ballplayers on the club, but also as the best shortstop in the division and he can do it with his bat as well as his glove. Led by outfielder Denard Span, the Nationals stole 101 bases last season. Span had a career-high in stolen bases with 31 in 2014 with a .355 on-base percentage. Span is the table setter for this potent Nationals lineup and he’ll once again be vital to their potential success in 2015.

Jordan Zimmermann

Make no mistake about the fact that the Nationals will once again be favored to win the NL East due to their overall team balance as they have one of the best starting rotations in baseball. The Nats led the National League in team earned run average last season at 3.03 while all five of their starting pitchers won at least 10 games. Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann has emerged as one of the best pitchers in the NL and he should once again be in line to win at least 15 games this season. Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg made 34 starts last season while striking out 242 batters and at 26-years of age, this could be the season that he puts it altogether and takes home the National League Cy Young Award for the first time in his brief career. But rich got richer this off-season when the Nats were able to add starting pitcher Max Scherzer to their stable of strong arms. Scherzer and the Nationals agreed on a seven-year, $210 million deal that caught some baseball observers by surprise, but Washington is hopeful that this will be the last link to their potential championship chain. Scherzer was the 2013 American League Cy Young Award winner as a member of the Detroit Tigers. In five seasons with the Tigers, Scherzer was 82-35 with 1,081 strikeouts and he should flourish in the National League East.

Mike Rizzo

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo elected to allow relief pitcher Rafael Soriano walk in free agency and he traded relief pitcher Tyler Clippard to the Oakland Athletics. Soriano did lead the Nats in saves last season with 32, but he was erratic at times while Clippard was a solid pitcher in the eighth inning. Right now the ninth inning is Drew Storen’s job to lose for the Nationals. In five years Storen has saved 66 games for the Nats, but being a part-time closer and a full-time guy are two different animals.

It won’t take Rizzo or Williams that long to see what kind of team that they have as the Nationals will meet the Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, and Miami Marlins in the first month of the season which will all be good tests for Washington.

Y-Miami Marlins 88-74

After losing 100 games in 2013, not much was expected of the Miami Marlins last season. But the Marlins showed signs of improvement as they avoided finishing in the cellar of the National League East for a fourth consecutive season. The Marlins won 77 games in their second year under manager Mike Redmond and they could flirt with making the postseason this year for the first time since 2003.

Giancarlo Stanton

Any success that the Marlins will have in 2015 starts and ends with outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. At 25-years of age, Stanton is already one of the most feared sluggers in Major League Baseball as he is one day destined to hit a home run out of Marlins Park and flush into the Atlantic Ocean. The Marlins locked Stanton up this off-season to a 13-year, $325 million contract which is the largest in North American sports history. Stanton tied a career-high in home runs last season with 37. Stanton finished second in the National League MVP balloting and he may have won the award had he not suffered several facial injuries after being hit by a pitch while facing the Milwaukee Brewers late in the regular season. Stanton led the NL home runs last season without the luxury of having a ton of talent around, but that will not be the case in 2015.

Dee Gordon

Marlins general manager Dan Jennings spent this off-season wheeling and dealing in the hopes to get this club back to the postseason. The Marlins acquired second baseman Dee Gordon and starting pitcher Dan Haren from the Los Angeles Dodgers as one man’s trash could be another’s fortune. The Dodgers front office gave up on Gordon who led the National League in stolen bases last season with 64. And as long as Gordon is able to get on base, Stanton’s offensive production should increase. In a five-player trade the Marlins also acquired utility man Martin Prado and starting pitcher David Phelps from the New York Yankees. Prado can play multiple positions, but the Marlins are expecting him to settle in a third base. After helping the San Francisco Giants win the World Series last season, utility man Mike Morse is coming home. Morse is a native of Fort Lauderdale, Florida and in his 10-year Major League Baseball career he has averaged 23 home runs and 77 runs batted in per season. Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna is only 24-years of age, but he is coming off of a season in which he hit 23 home runs and a 30-homer season could be in the cards for him in 2015.

Jose Fernandez

After undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, the Marlins are hopeful that starting pitcher Jose Fernandez could return at some point this season, but they still have a good blend of youth and veterans in their starting rotation. The Marlins acquired starting pitcher Mat Latos from the Cincinnati Reds this off-season. Latos grew up in Fort Lauderdale and the Marlins are hopeful that this will be the season that he is able to put it all together and win at least 17 games. Very quietly relief pitcher Steve Cishek saved 39 games last season for the Marlins and if he is able to save anywhere between 45-50 in 2015, it could point Miami in the direction of postseason baseball.

For the month of April, the Nationals are the only team that the Marlins face that had a winning record last season as they will look to get out of the gates with a fast start and produce some excitement for baseball in South Florida.

New York Mets 84-78

2008 was the last time that the New York Mets had a winning season. But heading into 2015 there is actually some optimism in Queens for the Mets. The past few seasons have seen the Mets live by the “destroy and rebuild” philosophy. Mets owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon have found themselves cash strapped over the past few years as they have tried to hang on to their fledgling franchise. But the adhesive in Flushing has been the Mets general manager Sandy Alderson. Alderson is entering his fifth season as the Mets general manger and he doesn’t have a winning record under his belt during his time there, but he has been able to rebuild the team’s minor league system through trades and drafting. The Mets primarily have a home grown team sprinkled in with some imports here and there.

Daniel Murphy

Second baseman Daniel Murphy was drafted by the Mets in 2006 and he debuted with the club in 2008. Murphy is the best contact hitter that the Mets have in spite of the reluctancy by Alderson to give him a long-term deal. First baseman Lucas Duda was drafted by the Mets in 2007 and he made his debut with the club in 2010. Duda is a first baseman by trade, but the Mets forced him to play right field. When the Mets brass gave up on Ike Davis last year they entrusted Duda to be their everyday first baseman. Duda didn’t disappoint as he hit 30 home runs and even garnered a few votes in the voting for the National League MVP Award. The Mets are hopeful that Duda’s big season in 2014 is a harbinger of things to come as they sorely need a consistent power hitter in the heart of their lineup. Mets third baseman David Wright has been the face of the franchise for quite some time now. Wright is coming off of his worst statistical season as a pro as injuries curtailed him in 2014. But Wright is healthy this season and he has more talent around him in the Mets lineup. And all Wright needs is to hit 23 home runs this season and he will become the Mets all-time leader within the category. After being demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas last season for a spell, catcher Travis d’Arnaud returned to the Mets and became a better hitter as he finished seventh in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. The Mets are hopeful that d’Arnaud continues to trend upwards at the plate. And the Mets pitching staff likes the way that d’Arnaud calls a game behind the plate which makes him a keeper. The Mets have all but given up on Ruben Tejada at shortstop and with Alderson failing to find a trade partner or sign a free agent, the job appears to be Wilmer Flores’ to lose. The Mets have used Flores at second base, third base, and at shortstop, but if he has going to stick around in Queens he’ll have to do it at shortstop. Last year Flores batted .251 with a .286 on-base percentage, 6 home runs, and 29 runs batted in. Flores did this in 274 plate appearances as Mets manager Terry Collins didn’t consistently allow him to play. But if Flores is given his opportunity, he should not disappoint.

Juan Lagares

Mets center fielder Juan Lagares can flash the leather in center field as he won a Gold Glove for his defensive prowess in 2014. Lagares’ biggest problem is staying healthy and if he can finally do that, he will continue to flourish while making the jobs of the pitchers and corner outfielders for the Mets that much easier. Alderson and Collins are going with a pair of veterans at the corner outfield positions. Outfielder Curtis Granderson is entering his second season with the Mets as they found out last season what the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees already knew; that he is a strikeout machine waiting to happen. Granderson is a good clubhouse guy, but the Mets need him to produce on the field. And apparently any friend of Wright is a friend of the Mets. The Mets signed Wright’s good friend Michael Cuddyer to play right field. Cuddyer appeared in only 49 games last season for the Colorado Rockies and this could be another one of those infamous bad free agent signings by the Mets.

Matt Harvey

The Mets team earned run average of 3.49 was sixth in the NL last season and it should once again be the backbone of this team. After missing all of 2014 as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, starting pitcher Matt Harvey is returning which could be good for the Mets and bad for the other teams in the NL East as he is one of the few true aces in MLB. In 22 starts last season, starting pitcher Jacob deGrom went 9-6 with a 2.69 earned run average as he became the first Mets player since Dwight Gooden in 1984 to be the selected as National League’s top rookie. Along with Harvey and deGrom, the Mets have Jon Niese, Zach Wheeler, and Bartolo Colon in their starting rotation. And it would not shock me at some point this summer to see prized prospect Noah Syndergaard take the mound for the Mets in Queens.

The law firm of Jenrry Mejia and Jeryus Familia will make things interesting in the late innings, but Collins will trust them to close out games while the returning Bobby Parnell could also be a factor in the Mets bullpen.

The Mets first month of the season will see them concentrate on battling the NL East which could make or break their 2015 before it even starts.

Atlanta Braves 79-83

Last season the Atlanta Braves saw their first losing season since 2008 and with it came wholesale changes. Late last season Frank Wren was relieved of his duties as the Braves general manager. John Hart was brought in as the interim general manager and was offered the full-time job, but instead he opted to become the Braves president of baseball operations. And in the past few months Hart has been reshaping the Braves roster.

Outfielder Jason Heyward was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals along with relief pitcher Jordan Walden in exchange for starting pitcher Shelby Miller and minor-league pitcher Tyrell Jenkins. And not too long after Heyward was traded to the Cards, Hart traded outfielder Justin Upton to the San Diego Padres. Hart also traded utility man Evan Gattis to the Houston Astros. Appearing to now be thin in the outfield, Hart and the Braves signed former Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis. In nine seasons with the Orioles, Markakis averaged 17 homers, 78 runs batted in and a .290 batting average. Markakis has tremendous range in the outfield as well as being a two-time American League Gold Glove Award winner.

Freddie Freeman

But the Braves offense starts and ends with first baseman Freddie Freeman. Freeman’s offensive numbers were down a little in 2014, but he is expected to bounce back as he is one of the best contact hitters in Major League Baseball.

Part of the Braves offensive woes last season were that they were 10th in the NL in on-base percentage at .305. A big part of those woes begin with outfielder B.J. Upton. Upton is entering his third year with the Braves after signing a five-year, $75 million contract and he now prefers to be called Melvin. Upon Upton’s arrival in Atlanta he was supposed to the Braves table setter, but since coming to Dixie he has only batted .179 with a .287 on-base percentage with 32 stolen bases. Upton’s lethargic play has led to Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez dropping him in the lineup and at some points benching him altogether. The Braves would love to trade Upton, but due to his lucrative salary they are on the hook for the next three years with an unproductive player and it will be darn near impossible to ship him out of town.

Julio Teheran

In 2014, the Braves had four starting pitchers win at least 11 games, but two of those pitchers in Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang are no longer with the team. The Braves are backing on 24-year old starting pitcher Julio Teheran being able to assert himself and become an ace of the pitching staff. Gonzalez and the Braves do have a stable of arms in their bullpen in Jason Grilli, James Russell, and Jim Johnson that will set things up for closer Craig Kimbrel who has saved 186 games over the last four seasons.

2015 will be a transitional period for the Braves and with their first 15 games of the upcoming season against improved teams in the Miami Marlins, New York Mets, and Toronto Blue Jays, the fans in Atlanta and the surrounding areas must show patience.

Philadelphia Phillies 74-88

The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off of consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 2000 and with one of the oldest teams in Major League Baseball, 2015 shouldn’t give the baseball fans in Philly that much hope. Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro traded longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins to the Los Angeles Dodgers and he shouldn’t stop there as he is holding on to false hope with this team. There is a trade market for starting pitcher Cole Hamels, relief pitcher Jonathan Papelbon, and second baseman Chase Utley as Amaro must completely blow this thing up. And with that the outlook for the Phillies in the National League East for 2015 is bleak at best.

Ryne Sandberg

Ryne Sandberg is entering is second full season as the Phillies manager and he will have his hands full in trying to get things turned around in Philadelphia. Hamels is expected to be the Phillies ace this season, but there is uncertainty around that as he could be traded. Starting pitcher Cliff Lee is 36-years of age and an elbow injury limited him to just 13 starts last season which makes it tough for the Phillies to expect him to throw 200 innings this season. Like Lee, Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Harang is 36-years of age and he is a journeyman. 2015 will mark Harang’s third different NL East team in as many seasons as it was the Mets in 2013 and the Braves last year. But like Lee, the Phillies cannot put baited breath on Harang’s arm.

In three seasons with the Phillies, Papelbon has saved 106 games, but he has been a lightning rod for controversy as he has tried his hardest to get traded with his outbursts which have all failed. However if the Phillies fall out of contention early in the NL East, maybe Papelbon will finally get his wish.

Ryan Howard

Last season the Phillies offense was near the bottom of most of the statistical categories in the NL East while they were fourth in strikeouts with 1,306. Even in his prime Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard was never the most mobile and at the age of 35 this is not an aspect of his game that will improve. The Phillies tried to rid themselves of Howard last season as they’re on the hook for pay him more than $60 million over the next three seasons which means that they could attempt to trade him to an American League team where he would be better served as a designated hitter if he gets off to a fast start. Howard’s teammate on the Phillies right side the infield for nearly the past decade has been Utley who is 36-years of age and after a bounce back 2014, it will tough for Philadelphia to expect to play more than 150 games once more this season.

After five consecutive playoff appearances from 2007-2011, the Phillies need to be full on as far as rebuilding which means that this could be a long season in the City of Brotherly Love.

X-Division Champion

Y-Wild Card

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

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