2014 National League Central Projections

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National League Central
W L GB
X-St. Louis Cardinals 97   65  —
Pittsburgh Pirates 88   74   9
Cincinnati Reds 88   74   9
Milwaukee Brewers 71   91 26
Chicago Cubs 62 100 35

X-Clinched Division

Cardinals      Pirates      Reds      Brewers      Cubs



St. Louis Cardinals


The St. Louis Cardinals have a certain way of conducting business which has been extremely effective for them as it is known as the “Cardinal Way”. Since 2000, the Cardinals have had eight 90-win seasons and they have also claimed two World Series Championships. The Cardinals were two games away from claiming their 12th World Series Championship last season, but they were stymied by the Boston Red Sox in the Fall Classic. Once again the future looks bright for the Cardinals heading into the 2014 Major League Baseball season.

Adam WainwrightThe Cardinals are projected to have four pitchers in their starting rotation that recorded at least 10 victories last season and the scary thing about it is that they all can actually improve.

Since 2009, Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright has compiled a record of 72-41 while leading the National League in victories twice as he has developed a reputation as one of the best pitchers in the business. In the past two seasons Cardinals staring pitcher Lance Lynn has won 33 games and he once again has the potential to win at 15 games in 2014. Cardinals starting pitcher Shelby Miller is entering his third Major League Baseball season (all in St. Louis) and he is still improving as he has yet to throw 200 innings in a season. But Cardinals manager Mike Matheny does expect Miller to reach that plateau in 2014. Last season pitcher Joe Kelly spent the majority of his season in the Cardinals bullpen, but down the stretch he served as a valuable starter in St. Louis. This season Kelly will begin the year in the Cardinals starting rotation and if he can deliver 175 innings of solid work, Matheny will be pleased. Starting pitcher Michael Wacha made his MLB debut late in 2013 and recorded a 4-1 record with a 2.78 earned run average before going 4-1 in the postseason with a 2.64 earned run average. The kid gloves are expected to be taken off for Wacha this season who is a logical candidate to be the 2014 National League Rookie of the Year.


With the exception of of Wainwright every pitcher in the Cardinals starting rotation is in their mid to early 20’s which is scary for the other NL teams and the same thing can said about the bullpen in St. Louis.

Last year 23-year old relief pitcher Trevor Rosenthal was primarily used as a setup man out of the Cardinals bullpen, but once Edward Mujica left as a free agent to sign with the Red Sox, Rosenthal will now become Matheny’s closing pitcher. 22-year old pitcher Carlos Martinez was a valuable flame thrower in the Cardinals bullpen last season as middle reliever. The young Dominican in Martinez has an electric fastball that reminds many people of a young Pedro Martinez.

The man that holds this Cardinals team together is catcher Yadier Molina. Molina comes from a catching family where his brothers Benji and Jose (Rays) have enjoyed success in Major League Baseball. Yadier is a six-time National League Gold Glove Award winner who will look to make it seven straight this season. Molina dares runners to steal bases on him as he has 673 career assists from behind the plate. Molina was behind the plate for the Cardinals in 131 games last season as St. Louis’ pitching staff had an earned run average of 3.42 which was fifth in the NL. Molina can also do it behind the plate and hitting as he finished tied for third last season in batting average in the National League at .319.

The Cardinals lineup was one of most balanced ones in baseball last season as six players hit at least 11 home runs. The Cardinals lineup should once again have a balanced attack in 2014 led by outfielders Allen Craig and Matt Holliday. Craig was in the running to win the NL’s MVP Award last season before a Lisfranc injury limited him down the stretch. Throughout his career Holliday has been “steady Eddie” with both the Cardinals and Colorado Rockies and Matheny can once again count on him to hit at least 25 home runs this season.

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak opened up some eyes around baseball this off-season when he signed shortstop Jhonny Peralta to a four-year, $53 million deal. Peralta was suspended by Major League Baseball last season for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. For his 12-year MLB career, Peralta is a career .268 hitter, but the Cardinals organization has a history of getting the best and then some out of players.

It won’t take the Cardinals that long to flex their muscles within the National League Central as their first 15 games of the season are against division opponents.


Pittsburgh Pirates

2013 was a renaissance year for the Pittsburgh Pirates. After not having a winning record or qualifying for the postseason since 1992, the Pirates crossed that off of their bucket list last season. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has changed the culture in Pittsburgh as this team now expects to win while the fan base is believing once more as well. For 2014, the Pirates must find a way to do what the good teams tend to do which is to become a consistent playoff team.

Andrew McCutchenThe Pirates offense will once again be paced by the reigning National League MVP in Andrew McCutchen and third baseman Pedro Alvarez. McCutchen is one of the best five-tool players currently around in Major League Baseball while Alvarez can provide him with some much needed protection for him in the lineup. Alvarez hit a career-high in home runs last season with 36 which led the NL. Alvarez doesn’t hit for average while he also struck out 186 times last season which is something that he must improve in 2014. 

The Pirates have a young core which also includes outfielder Starling Marte who both Hurdle and Pirates general manager Neal Huntington are extremely high on. Marte is 25-years old and he stole 41 bases to go along with 12 home runs last season. Marte has yet to play a full season with the Pirates as he is just taking the lid off of his potential.

Pirates pitching had the third lowest earned run average in the National League last season at 3.26. Huntington was hopeful to re-sign veteran starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, but he departed in free agency to join the Philadelphia Phillies. In his first season in the NL, starting pitcher Francisco Liriano led the Pirates pitching staff in victories with 16 and he is once again expected to lead the rotation in 2014. The success of the Pirates pitching this season will rely on young starting pitchers in Gerrit Cole and Jeff Locke. Locke is entering his fourth MLB season (all with the Pirates) while Cole was 10-7 last season as a rookie in 2013.

After accumulating just five saves in the first 10 years of his MLB career as a relief pitcher, Jason Grilli emerged as one of the NL’s top closers last season with 33 saves. An arm injuyry slowed Grilli down late in 2013, but he is expected to be healthy for Opening Day. If Grilli should struggle, Hurdle can rely on relief pitcher Mark Melancon who had 16 saves in Grili’s absence last season.

With the exception of one series in the month of April, the Pirates will exclusively face the National League Central and a fast start in 2014 could point towards the postseason once again.



Cincinnati Reds

In three out of the last four seasons the Cincinnati Reds have been a playoff team, but they have been unable to advance in the postseason. After a 90-win season in 2013, the Reds looked completely disinterested as they lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Wild Card Game. Several changes were made to the Reds ball club as after six seasons Dusty Baker was fired as Reds manager and he was replaced by Bryan Price. Price inherits a Reds team that is talented enough to win the World Series, but will they be consistent for the entire season?

The Reds lost their lead-off hitter in outfielder Shin-Soo Choo as he signed a lucrative free agent deal to join the Texas Rangers, but Cincinnati still has their core in first baseman Joey Votto, second baseman Brandon Phillips and outfielder Jay Bruce in the heart of their lineup. The Reds are high on 23-year old outfielder Billy Hamilton. Hamilton is a speedster who stole 13 bases last season in just 13 games. In 1887, Hugh Nichol set the Reds single-season for stolen bases with 138 so Hamilton will have his hands full if he expects to break that record.

The Reds will return three starting pitchers that earned at least 11 victories last season, but one of the keys will be the health of starting pitcher Johnny Cueto. Last season injuries limited Cueto to just 11 starts which was the worst of his six-year Major League Baseball career. Cueto only threw 60.2 innings last season which was a stark contrast from the 217 that he hurled in 2012. Reds starting pitchers Homer Bailey and Mat Latos are expected to once again eclipse the 200-inning plateau while Mike LeakeAroldis Chapman can provide some depth at the back of the rotation for Price in Cincinnati.
 
Relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman has been a flame thrower for the Reds in the past two seasons coming out of the bullpen in the ninth inning as he has 76 saves in the past two seasons. A combination of Reds starting pitchers going deep into ball games and middle relievers such as Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, and J.J. Hoover giving the ball to Chapman with a lead in the ninth inning will keep Cincinnati competitive in 2014.

Four of the Reds first five series this season are against playoff teams from 2014 so a quick start by Cincinnati could help Price win over this veteran clubhouse.



Milwaukee Brewers

After winning a franchise best 96 games and making their only appearance in the National League Championship Series in 2011, the Milwaukee Brewers have taken drastic steps backwards. Last year the Brewers lost 88 games for the first time since 2004.

Ryan Braun
A big part of the Brewers setback has been the controversy surrounding outfielder Ryan Braun. Braun won the NL MVP Award in 2011 and he led the Senior Circuit in home runs for 2012 with 41. But Braun failed a drug test in 2011 which led to him being suspended last season for 61 games due to his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal. Braun is set to return to the Brewers lineup this season, but the jury will be out as whether or not he can return to the form that made him a five-time National League All-Star.

Aside from Braun, second baseman Rickie Weeks has taken a huge step backwards recently and you have to wonder if he merely benefited from the protection that former Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder provided? Weeks only hit 10 home runs last season after hitting 21 in 2012. For the Brewers to have any chance of contending in the NL Central this season they will need both Braun and Weeks to increase their productivity.

Outfielder Carlos Gomez has emerged as the Brewers best player which was highlighted by his career-high 24 home runs last season that led the ball club. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez will continue to patrol the hot corner for the Brewers, but at 35-years of age his productivity has diminished and it will be tough for Milwaukee to rely on him for all 162 games in the regular season. Brewers manager Ron Roenicke is hopeful that he has a building block in 23-year old shortstop Jean Segura. Segura swiped 44 bases last season for the Brewers as he has the ability to be a tremendous table setter.

Last season the Brewers starting pitchers were 13th in the NL in quality starts with just 82. The onus will be on Brewer starters to go deeper into ball games in order to help their bullpen. It will be a huge shot in the arm for Melvin if starting pitchers Yovani Gallardo or Kyle Lohse can find a way to each win 15 games this season after they combined to win just 23 last year. Brewers general manager Doug Melvin attempted to bolster Milwaukee’s rotation by signing starting pitcher Matt Garza. But Garza has only won 15 games in a season once in his MLB career which was back in 2010 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Brewers will need a fast start to get some confidence for themselves, but the schedule makers didn’t do them any favors. The Brewers open the regular season at home against the defending National League East Champion Atlanta Braves before embarking on a six-game road trip against the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies. This has the makings of a long baseball season in beer country.



Chicago Cubs

Theo EpsteinThe Chicago Cubs have not made it a secret that they are in process of rebuilding, but for some of us, the Cubs have been rebuilding since 1908. The Cubs now find themselves in the their third year under president of baseball operations Theo Epstein who has made some questionable moves. After two seasons Dale Sveum was fired as manager of the Cubs in favor of Rick Renteria. Sveum’s firing was a shock due to the fact the problems with the Cubs were not expected to be fixed overnight.

Part of the Cubs problems last season were that they were backing on some of their young players to emerge which didn’t happen. After being selected as a two-time National League All-Star in his first three seasons, Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro went in the wrong direction last season. Castro managed to lead the team last season in hits win 163, but his .245 batting average along with a .284 on-base percentage really hurt the Cubs chances as for what they were able to do offensively. Renteria, Epstein, and Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer are hopeful that Castro resembles the player that was signed to a seven-year, $60 million extension in 2012. Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo led the club in home runs last season with 23 and he will look to improve that number this season while also improving upon his .233 batting average from last season. Darwin Barney has had three seasons to prove himself as the Cubs starting second baseman, but his batting average has decreased every year. Barney is penciled in as the Cubs starting second baseman, but it may be time for the North Siders to go in a different direction at second base.

Renteria and Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio have their hands full in trying to get the Cubs pitching staff turned around. The Cubs did not have one pitcher record at least 10 wins in 2013 while they had a team earned run average of 4.00 which was 12th in the National League.

The only excitement for the fans on the North Side of Chicago this season will be whether or not Cubs owner Tom Ricketts will finally get his wish of his renovation plans to Wrigley Field.

Source: Baseball-reference.com

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By | 2014-08-01T01:53:44+00:00 March 16th, 2014|Categories: Major League Baseball|0 Comments

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