2014 American League Central Projections

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Detroit Tigers

The last three seasons have seen the Detroit Tigers make the postseason, but they have been unable to claim a World Series Championship over that stretch. After winning the American League Pennant in 2012, the Tigers were once again expected to contend for the World Series Title in 2013. In the 2013 American League Championship Series, the Tigers appeared to be on their way to a 2-0 series lead over the Boston Red Sox until their bullpen imploded. The Tigers never recovered and they fell to the Red Sox in six games.

The loss to the Red Sox brought on a slew of changes in Detroit. After eight seasons as the manager of the Tigers, Jim Leyland decided to retire. After signing a nine-year, $214 million deal to join the Tigers in 2012, first baseman Prince Fielder was shockingly traded this off-season to the Texas Rangers. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski also traded starting pitcher Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals in another surprise move.

The Tigers will have a new look in 2014 as after an 18-year career as a Major League Baseball catcher, 41-year old Brad Ausmus will be the new manager of the Tigers.

In exchange for sending Fielder to the Rangers, the Tigers received second baseman Ian Kinsler. During his eight-year Major League Baseball playing career, Kinsler has averaged 24 home runs to go along with being a three-time AL All-Star. Ausmus will rely on Kinsler and center fielder Austin Jackson at the top of the Tigers lineup. Jackson has cut down on his strikeouts as he only struck out 129 last season compared to 181 in 2011. Jackson is not a big base stealer, but it will still be important for him to get on base in front of Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera. 

After winning the Triple Crown in 2012 for leading the American League in batting average, home runs, and runs batted in, Cabrera flirted with it once again in 2013. Last season Cabrera led the American League in batting at .348 to go along with 44 home runs and 137 runs batted in. But injuries derailed Cabrera down the stretch and hampered the Tigers in the postseason. Cabrera has always been a phenomenal hitter, but his numbers skyrocketed in the past two seasons with Fielder hitting behind him. In 2011, Cabrera walked 108 times while in the past two seasons with him hitting in front of Fielder he combined to walk just 156 times. The Tigers are hopeful that designated hitter Victor Martinez can provide more depth behind Cabrera, but Martinez does not pose the same kind of threat that Fielder did as far as protecting Cabrera.

For the past few seasons when you mention the top of the Tigers pitching rotation you cannot start without discussing Justin Verlander who has been one of the top pitcher’s in the game of baseball. But Verlander took a back seat last season to Max Scherzer. Since making his debut with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2008, Scherzer has been up and down, but he took flight in 2013. After seeing Verlander win pitching’s Triple Crown in 2011 as he led the AL in wins, strikeouts, and earned run average, Scherzer took notes as he flirted with doing the same thing during the 2013 Major League Baseball season. Last season Scherzer led the American League in wins (21), while finishing fifth in earned run average (2.90), and second in strikeouts (240). Scherzer’s efforts did not go unnoticed as he earned the American League’s Cy Young Award. The million dollar question for 2014 will be how will Scherzer follow this up when everyone is expecting him to be dominant? Last year was also the first season of Scherzer’s career in which he eclipsed the 200 inning mark and you must wonder how will he bounce back? 

Speaking of bouncing back, the Tigers hope that is the case for Verlander. After Verlander’s AL MVP season of 2011, his production has dropped off. Last season Verlander went 13-12 with an earned run average of 3.46 which was his highest since 2009. By the time that Opening Day rolls around Verlander will be 31-years old. In the past seven seasons Verlander has pitched at least 200 innings while three of those campaigns found him leading the American League in the category. In his first season Ausmus could look at monitoring Verlander’s innings closely with an eye towards keeping him fresh for the stretch run.

After a career-high in victories last season with 14, Dombrowski traded starting pitcher Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals in exchange for utility man Steve Lombardozzi. Fister’s absence will mean that it will be Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez at the back of the Tigers rotation to protect Scherzer and Verlander.

Last season the Tigers bullpen was their Achilles heel, but Dombrowski set out to improve that this off-season. The Tigers needed a closer and thus Joe Nathan and his 314 career saves were brought to Motown. Dombrowski is also hopeful that the addition of former New York Yankees relief pitcher Joba Chamberlain teaming with Phil Coke will solidify the Tigers bullpen in late inning situations.

It will be interesting to see how Ausmus establishes himself at first, but the Tigers should still be a scary team come October.

After only winning 68 games in 2012, the Cleveland Indians enjoyed a tremendous turnaround in 2013 in their first season under manager Terry Francona. The Indians won 92 games en route to securing an American League Wild Card berth. The Tribe was done in by the Tampa Bay Rays last year in the AL Wild Card Game, but there is optimism on the shores of Lake Erie heading into 2014.

Francona has brought a winning attitude to Cleveland as he is trying to make the culture there reminiscent of how things were for the Indians when they were a consistent playoff team during the 1990’s. The Indians have the tough mindset that is required for them to be a thorn in the side of the Detroit Tigers all season long in the AL Central.

The Indians will once again look to utility man Nick Swisher to be a leader for their team. Last season Swisher only batted .246, but he had an on-base percentage of .341 to go along with 22 home runs.

Last season the Indians were a middle of the pack team in the American League for hitting, but their strength once again will be speed. Last season the Indians were fourth in the AL in stolen bases with 117 and they will look to do the same this season. Outfielders Michael Bourn and Michael Brantley both have the potential to steal 30 bases while second baseman Jason Kipnis led the Indians with 30 steals last season. The Indians were fifth in the American League last season in on-base percentage at .327 last season and for this team to once again contend they must be one of the top teams in the AL as far as this category goes.

In 2013 the Indians were only able to get 44 victories from their current starting pitchers while they were 13th in the American League in quality starts 73. Indians starting pitcher Justin Masterson won a career-high 14 games last season, but at the age of 28 is he ready to take that next step and become an elite AL pitcher? After five seasons as the Indians closing pitcher, Chris Perez has joined the Los Angeles Dodgers. Francona could start the season with a closer by committee, but I expect John Axford to emerge as the man to take the ball in the ninth inning for Cleveland.

The Indians caught lightning in a bottle last season, but it will be interesting to see how they’ll respond in 2014 now that the other American League teams have seen their act.

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Kansas City Royals

Last season the Kansas City Royals showed signs of life as they won 86 games to ensure their first winning season since 2003. The Royals finished 5.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the final American League Wild Card spot, but they still have not made the playoffs since 1985 which was also the last and only time that they won the World Series. The Royals have been long rumored to have a good minor league system and their prospects were finally able to contribute last season. First baseman Eric Hosmer led the Royals in batting average last season to go along with 17 home runs and 79 runs batted in. Royals 23-year old catcher Salvador Perez won his first Gold Glove Award last season while also earning his first trip to the MLB All-Star Game. But this season the Royals offense must improve as they were 11th in the AL in runs scored last season.

The Royals inability to score runs last season really hurt their pitching staff that led the American League in earned run average at 3.45. Royals starting James Shields embodied that as he threw 228.2 innings for the Royals to go along with a 13-9 record, but he was snake bitten by no-decisions last season and lack of run support. Royals manager Ned Yost will once again rely on Shields at the top of the rotation this season, but with the exception of his rookie year in 2006, Shields has thrown at least 200 innings in every season so you must wonder if his arm will be able to hold up? Last season reliever Greg Holland emerged as a shutdown closer for the Royals. Holland was second in the American League in saves with 47 and if he close to that number in 2014 it will more than likely symbolize a great season for the Royals.

The Royals crept up on teams last season, but what can this bunch led by Yost do this season when they have to live up to expectations?

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Minnesota Twins

From 2001-2010 the Minnesota Twins enjoyed nine winning seasons and six trips to the playoffs, but they have fallen on tough times lately as they have suffered three consecutive 90-plus losing seasons. At the surface the Twins appear to be a team without direction that is relying too much on one man to do everything. Twins catcher Joe Mauer has been the face of the franchise which has been highlighted by him being a six-time American League All-Star. But Mauer’s production has slipped ever since the Twins moved into Target Field back in 2010. Since 2010, Mauer has only hit 33 home runs as compared to him hitting 28 long balls in 2009 which was also the Twins last season at the Metrodome.

For 2014, Mauer will lead a Twins team that finished last season near the bottom of every major statistical category in the AL. Unfortunately for the Twins and their fans they may not see that much improvement this season.

With a core of their lineup that will feature Mauer, third baseman Trevor Plouffe, and left fielder Josh Willingham, the Twins must once again find a way to manufacture runs as Minnesota currently does not have a player on their roster with the potential to hit 25 home runs while also driving in 100 runs. With the departure of longtime Twins first baseman Justin Morneau last season, Mauer will see more games at first base as the Twins organization is looking to preserve his body and extend his Major League Baseball career.

Last season Twins starting pitcher Kevin Correia led the team with 9 victories. As a unit the Twins pitching staff had an earned run average of 4.55 which was 14th in the American League while they only had 62 quality starts which was dead last.

In an attempt to improve the starting pitching for his team this season, Twins general manager Terry Ryan went out and signed two veteran starting pitchers in Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes. In eight MLB seasons with the Florida/Miami Marlins, Nolasco has 89 victories while he has averaged pitching 202 innings per season. After going 18-8 and being selected as an American League All-Star in 2010 as a member of the New York Yankees, Hughes went 27-32 in his final three seasons in the Bronx. Hughes has never been a power pitcher and the key for him this season like always will be his ability to keep the baseball down in the zone.

For Twins manager Ron Gardenhire if his starting pitchers can get the game to the ninth inning with a lead for Minnesota, then he can turn the game over to a reliable closing pitcher in Glen Perkins who was 9th in the AL last season in saves with 36. In 62.2 innings pitched last season Perkins struck out 77 batters and he is expected to once again be one of the top closers in the American League for 2014.

The Twins will host MLB’s All-Star Game this summer which will create a much needed buzz for baseball around the Twin Cites, but it will still be a long season for the fans in Minnesota.

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox were the surprise team of 2012 as under their first year manager Robin Ventura they won 85 games and in the process they hung with the Detroit Tigers for the entire season in the American League Central Division. The White Sox took a huge step backwards last season as they lost 99 games in a season for the first time since 1970. After last season there was some speculation that White Sox president of baseball operations Kenny Williams would fire Ventura, but the former White Sox third baseman has a chance to improve on a disastrous season in 2013 as he just received an extension on his contract.

White Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale will once again be the ace of this starting rotation, but he cannot do it all by himself. Last season Sale led the White Sox in wins (11) and losses (14), while his 3.07 earned run averaged was seventh in the AL. Aside from Sale’s 11 victories at the top the rotation, the other four projected White Sox starters in John Danks, Jose Quintana, Jake Petricka, and Andre Rienzo combined to win just 18 games last season as that is a stat that must improve tremendously for this team to contend in the AL Central for 2014.

For the past two seasons Addison Reed recorded 69 saves as the White Sox closer, but he was traded this off-season to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last season no White Sox pitcher other than Reed recorded a save. In Reed’s place Ventura could go with a closer-by-committee or he might ultimately settle on Matt Lindstrom. For his seven-year MLB career Lindstrom has recorded 45 saves and he is the most qualified to take the ball for the South Siders in the ninth inning.

Offensively the White Sox are an aging unit with a ton of questions on top of that. Longtime White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko decided to give it a go for another season. The 37-year old Konerko had his worst home run output last year since 2003 as he only went deep 12 times. The modern day version of Dave Kingman is White Sox designated hitter Adam Dunn who will once again be in the discussion to hit 40 home runs, but his batting average will be in the .220 range. Williams and the White Sox organization are hopeful that former Cuban baseball player Jose Dariel Abreu can have an immediate impact on this team. Abreu is a power hitter that gives the White Sox the potential to have another 25 home run hitter in their lineup.

Clearly the White Sox are a team that is rebuilding, but if they put it altogether in 2014 they can still cause problems for contending teams within the AL Central.

Source: Baseball-reference.com