2014 American League East Projections

 

 

Heading into the 2013 Major League Baseball season most people expected the Tampa Bay Rays to once again be a tough team, but the question was would they have enough to make the postseason? For the sixth consecutive season the Rays posted a winning record and it also marked the fourth straight year in a row in which they won at least 90 games in the regular season. The Rays had to play 163 games in the regular season in 2013, but they were too much for the Texas Rangers in the play-in game and thus they advanced to the playoffs. The Rays entered the playoffs hot, but they could not overcome the Boston Red Sox as they fell to them in four games in the American League Divisional Series.

One of the things that has allowed the Rays to remain as one of the top teams in the AL has been their starting pitching. In recent years the Rays have departed with starting pitchers such as Matt Garza and James Shields, but they haven’t skipped a beat. Rays general manager Andrew Friedman along with Rays manager Joe Maddon have turned into a dynamic tandem as they have had the ability to trade players while getting quality prospects back in return. When Garza was traded to the Cubs in 2011, the Rays received five players including starting pitcher Chris Archer. Archer has worked his way up in the Rays system and in 23 starts last season, Archer posted a 9-7 record and a 3.22 earned run average. Shields was traded to the Kansas City Royals following the 2012 MLB season and in the exchange the Rays received outfielder Wil Myers. In just 88 games last season Myers hit 13 home runs with 53 runs batted in while posting a .293 batting average. In the process Myers would go on to win the AL’s Rookie of the Year Award.

The pitcher that could bring back more prospects for the Rays now is starting pitcher David Price. Price is under the Rays control through 2016, but he has tremendous value on the trading market due to the fact that he can be a dominant front of the rotation starting pitcher and Tampa has a wealth of pitchers to replace him. Price is a three-time American League All-Star as well as being the 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner. Price missed time last season due to injury as he was only 10-8 with an earned run average of 3.33, but he came up big when his team needed him. In the play-in game against the Rangers, Price pitched a complete game as the Rays defeated Texas 5-2. Friedman and Maddon are not in a rush to trade Price as they will look to get back quality in return and their current rotation behind him is not shabby.

Last season Rays starting pitcher Matt Moore’s 17 wins were tied for third in the American League. Moore has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, but he is only 24-years old and the future looks bright for both he and the Rays. Along with Moore and Price, starting pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Alex Cobb both recorded double-digits in victories. Last season the Rays starting pitchers accounted for 65 victories in spite of the fact that none of them reached the 200 innings pitched marked on the season. But going forward Maddon will look to get more out of his starters as the Rays 80 quality starts were 9th in the AL. The starting rotation will once again be the backbone for the Rays as each of their starting pitchers has the ability to record 15 victories in 2014.

When Maddon does go to his bullpen he can rely on middle reliever Joel Peralta who had 41 holds last season in 80 appearances. Closer Fernando Rodney and his 37 saves left in free agency, but Friedman was up to his old tricks as the Rays acquired closing pitcher Heath Bell from the Arizona Diamondbacks. In his three seasons with the San Diego Padres, Bell totaled 134 saves and he was three-time National League All-Star. In his past two seasons with the Miami Marlins and Diamondbacks, Bell only totaled 34 saves with a 4.60 earned run average. But there is some magic that happens when players put that Rays uniform on and I will not be surprised if Bell is in the 40 saves range for 2014.

Along with Myers, Maddon will rely on his third baseman Evan Longoria to power the lineup. Longoria appeared in 160 games for the Rays last season as it marked the most games that he has appeared in due to the fact that the injury bug has gotten the best of him in the past few seasons. The Rays once again will need a healthy Longoria in their lineup. In his six-year MLB career, Longoria has averaged 33 home runs along with 111 runs batted in and a .275 batting average and he will need to close to those stats once again.

It won’t be easy for the Rays, but they will find a way to navigate through the tough American League East.

After a brutal 2012 that saw them finish in last place of the AL East, the Boston Red Sox came into 2013 with a bevy of question marks. People wondered how this veteran bunch would be able to respond to their first year manager in John Farrell. But the Red Sox found a rallying cry early in the 2013 MLB season. On April 15, the lives of many people changed in the state of Massachusetts following the unfortunate bombings at the Boston Marathon. The city of Boston developed the moniker of “Boston Strong” and the Red Sox lived it for the entire 2013 season as they would claim their third World Series Championship since 2004. Now you wonder if the Red Sox can silence the naysayers one more time who said that they were too old last season?

Farrell oversaw a pitching staff that decreased their earned run average by nearly a run from the end of 2012 to the end of 2013. After a disappointing 2012 season, starting pitcher Jon Lester bounced back to win 15 games in 2013 and he will once again be looked as a top of the rotation guy for the Red Sox. The Red Sox are hopeful that starting pitcher Clay Buchholz will be healthy for the entire 2014 MLB season. Last season Buchholz was 12-1 with a 1.74 earned run average, but a shoulder injury slowed him down the stretch. After a late surge and coming up big in the postseason, starting pitcher John Lackey appears ready to return to the form that he had prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery which forced him to miss the entire 2012 MLB season. After being left off of the Texas Rangers World Series roster in 2011, relief pitcher Koji Uehara was brought to Boston as an afterthought. But injuries to Andrew Bailey and Andrew Miller thrust Uehara into the closer’s role. Uehara recorded 21 saves in the regular season last year for the Red Sox, but he would go on to do most of his damage in the postseason. In helping the Red Sox win the World Series, Uehara had a 0.66 earned run average in 13.2 innings pitched to along with 7 saves and 16 strikeouts.

The Red Sox offense produced 853 runs last season which was tops in baseball, but Farrell must find a way to replace his table setter. Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury left the Red Sox to sign a lucrative deal with the New York Yankees after leading Major League Baseball in steals last season. Last season outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. spent most of this season at Triple-A Pawtucket, but the Red Sox organization has been at the top of baseball as far as developing talent and under general manager Ben Cherington that is still the case. The Red Sox also signed former All-Star outfielder Grady Sizemore in the off-season. Sizemore who is a lifetime .269 hitter spent his entire eight-year career with the Cleveland Indians, but knee problems have forced him out of baseball since 2011. The Red Sox are only on the hook for 750k to Sizemore this season in what could be a low risk, high reward move by Cherington.

The Red Sox lineup will once again be paced by outfielder Shane Victorino and second baseman Dustin Pedroia. In his first season with the Red Sox, Victorino batted .294 while stealing 21 bases to go along with 15 home runs and 61 runs batted in. Victorino brought that scrappy mentality to Boston as he previously helped the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series in 2008. With a batting average of .301 to go along with an on-base percentage of .372 Pedroia was once again the heart and soul of the Red Sox as he embodies the city of Boston. When the Red Sox needed a player to emerge last season and take ownership of this team they looked to designated hitter David Ortiz. Affectionately known as “Big Papi”, Ortiz addressed the fans at Fenway Park in Boston during the Red Sox first home game following last spring’s bombings. Ortiz talked big and walked big as well as he went on to be the MVP of the 2013 World Series with a .688 batting average and a pair of home runs.

After electing to allow catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia walk in free agency, Cherington signed veteran catcher A.J. Pierzynski. In his 16-year MLB career that has seen him play for the Minnesota Twins, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, and Rangers, Pierzynski is a lifetime .269 hitter that has averaged 22 home runs per season, but it is his ability to call a game behind the plate that makes him extremely valuable and he will fit into the Red Sox “idiot” culture along with outfielder Jonny Gomes, catcher David Ross and first baseman Mike Napoli.

The Red Sox rode the big wave of momentum in 2013 and you just have to wonder what will be able to carry them in 2014?

For the second time since 2008, the New York Yankees missed the playoffs last season and they are hoping for a similar finish in 2014 to 2009 when they came back to win the World Series. But this Yankee team is a bit older and they have more question marks.

After missing the playoffs last season and watching their rival in the Boston Red Sox win the World Series, the Yankees were extremely active in free agency. After allowing catcher Russell Martin leave via free agency following the 2012 Major League Baseball season, the Yankees catchers only averaged to produce a combined batting average of .210 with a just 8 total home runs in 2013. To remedy the problem Yankees general manager Brian Cashman was able to lure catcher Brian McCann away from the Atlanta Braves with $85 million over the next five seasons. After being torched by outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury during his seven seasons with the Red Sox, the Yankees signed him this off-season to a seven-year, $153 million deal. The Yankees were desperate for a bat in their lineup to offset losing second baseman Robinson Cano in free agency and they went out and signed Carlos Beltran. The Yankees were on the verge of signing Beltran back in 2005 before he slipped through their hands to sign with the New York Mets. Beltran is no longer a center fielder like he was during his prime, but he can still play right field while also being a valuable designated hitter. For his 16-year MLB career Beltran has averaged 28 homers along with 104 runs batted in and he should fall in love with the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium.

Even with the new additions the Yankees still have a ton of questions heading into April. The Yankees are looking to improve on a team earned run average of 3.94 that was eighth overall in the American League a year ago. The Yankees ace in their pitching rotation is pitcher CC Sabathia. At 33-years of age Sabathia is looking to bounce back from the worst season of his 13-year MLB career. In 2013, Sabathia went 14-13 with a 4.78 earned run average. In the last eight seasons Sabathia has totaled at least 200 innings pitched and you have to wonder how much more that the hefty lefty has remaining in the tank? After a strong start to the 2013 MLB season, 38-year old starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda showed his age as he finished with a record of 11-13. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman still believes in Kuroda as he gave him a new two-year deal worth $31 million. In four seasons with the Yankees starting pitcher Ivan Nova has flirted with being an All-Star caliber player, but it is time for him to put it altogether for a whole season. In four seasons Nova has a career record of 38-20, but he has not thrown in 200 innings in a single-season yet and the Yankees will sorely need that effort from him in 2014.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi will have to rely on a new closer in his bullpen in 2014. After 19 MLB seasons (all with the Yankees) Mariano Rivera decided to retire and he took his 652 career saves with him. In steps David Robertson to attempt to replace Rivera. In his six seasons with the Yankees, Robertson has primarily been the setup man for Rivera, but now the spotlight will be shining on him.

Longtime Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter has seen other Yankee lifers such as Rivera retire recently and he has announced that 2014 will be his swan song. After recovering from a broken ankle that he suffered in the 2012 American League Championship Series, Jeter only appeared in 17 games last season. Jeter is a lifetime .312 hitter who can still give the Bronx Bombers a valuable bat in their lineup and he wants to end his soon to be 20-year MLB career on a high note.

Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez is staring a ban for the entire 2014 season after an arbitrator recently laid down his verdict in regards to Rodriguez’s relationship with a South Florida biogenesis clinic. In 44 games last season Rodriguez belted 7 home runs with 19 runs batted in while giving the Yankees more depth in their lineup down the stretch, but as controversial as he has been Rodriguez will be missed in the batting order for the Yanks.

Just like last season 2014 will be an up and down season for the Yankees. Overall this in aging team and in order for them to compete for a playoff spot Cashman and Girardi will have to become extremely creative. 

After 14 consecutive losing seasons the Baltimore Orioles emerged from the ashes in 2012 to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 1997. The Orioles won 85 games last season which wasn’t good enough to qualify for the playoffs, but it was still a clear illustration that the “Oriole Way” is returning to Baltimore.

The Orioles starting pitching took a step back in 2013. The Orioles had a team earned run average of 3.90 in 2012 which jumped to 4.20 last season. In order for Baltimore to be serious contenders this season they are going to need better pitching to offset their hitting. 

Last year Orioles starting pitcher Chris Tillman enjoyed the first season of his MLB career in which he pitched more than 200 innings and he rewarded Orioles manager Buck Showalter with his faith in him as he led the team in victories with 16. The Orioles needed another starting pitcher and just prior to the start of spring training, Orioles general manager Dan Duquette signed starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez to a four-year, $50 million deal. After winning 19 games with the Colorado Rockies in 2010, Jimenez has never come close to replicating that season and you have to question the amount of money that the Orioles forked over to him.

In a surprise move this off-season the Orioles traded relief pitcher Jim Johnson to the Oakland Athletics after he led the AL in saves last season with 50. The Orioles were expected to sign former Athletics relief pitcher Grant Balfour until he failed his physical. Heading into the season Showalter will more than likely rely on Tommy Hunter as the Orioles closer. Since joining the Orioles in 2011, Hunter has been an outstanding setup man, but taking the ball in the eighth inning as opposed to the ninth is a different beast.

The Orioles bread and butter has been their hitting as they led the American League in home runs last season with 212. 53 of those long balls came off of the bat of first baseman Chris Davis who has quickly emerged into a star. Orioles center fielder Adam Jones is a five-tool talent that could flirt with hitting 40 home runs this season and he is one of the best with his glove in the game of baseball. Orioles third baseman Manny Machado has emerged as one of the best young third baseman in baseball, but towards the end of last season he suffered a freakish knee injury that required surgery this off-season. The Orioles are hopeful to have Machado ready for Opening Day. The 21-year old Machado would be on pace to hit 20 home runs this season if he is healthy, but you have to hold your breath on his recovery.

If the Orioles were in another division they would be the top dog, but these teams in the AL East are just going to beat up on each other all season long.

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays were back on the map in 2013 as they were expected to contend for a playoff spot, but that quickly changed when the Jays started the season with a record 10-17 and it never improved for them as they finished the season with a record of 74-88. 

Injuries were one of the things that derailed the Blue Jays in 2013. Shortstop Jose Reyes was acquired from the Miami Marlins and he was expected to be the lead-off hitter for Toronto but he missed 69 games due to an ankle injury. Reyes is healthy this season and he is expected to be the catalyst at the top of the Blue Jays lineup as he will look to once again emerge as one of the top base stealers in baseball. In 2010 and 2011, Blue Jays right fielder Jose Bautista led the American League in home runs, but his production has fallen off due to injuries. After hitting 54 home runs in 2010, Bautista has only hit 55 in the last two seasons due to the fact that he has missed 114 games in the last two seasons. In Bautista’s absence the Blue Jays have found another power bat in their lineup in the form of Edwin Encarnacion. Last season Encarnacion led the Blue Jays in home runs (36), and runs batted in (104) and he will look to do it once again in 2014.

For Blue Jays manager John Gibbons he must get more out of a pitching staff that was 12th in the American League last season in earned run average at 4.25. After winning the 2012 National League Cy Young Award as a member of the New York Mets, starting pitcher R.A. Dickey was traded to the Jays and he struggled mightily in his first year back in the American League. After winning 20 games with the Mets in 2012, Dickey went 14-13 last season with an earned run average of 4.21. Historically the AL has been a better offensive league than the NL. It also didn’t help Dickey’s case that teams in the American League East are accustomed to seeing the knuckle ball on a consistent basis from former Boston Red Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield. When the knuckle ball is on, it is on, but it wasn’t on for Dickey last season. For the Jays to have a chance this season Dickey must return to the form that he had in 2012 with the Mets. After one season with the Miami Marlins, Blue Jays starting pitcher Mark Buehrle also found himself returning to the AL and he struggled as well, but he led the Toronto starters in earned run average with 4.15 last season which gives you an idea of how tough things were for the Jays. But like Dickey, Buehrle must improve on his 2013 season. Injuries curtailed the 2013 season for Blue Jays starting pitchers J.A. Happ, Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek who are youngsters that are in the long-term plans for Toronto.

The American League East is the toughest in baseball and the Blue Jays will just get lost in the shuffle. If the Blue Jays are unable to improve you can expect a bit of a shakeup in Toronto which could include the departure of players, Gibbons, and Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos.

Source: Baseball-reference.com