2012 AFC South Projections

For so long, The AFC South has been dominated by The Indianapolis Colts. Since this division was created in 2002 by The National Football League, The Colts have won the division seven times. The Houston Texans enter this season as the defending AFC South Champions, but The Tennessee Titans are not about to roll over and hand them the division which should make things exciting for an already fierce rivalry.

Houston Texans (10-6)

This is The Texans division to lose. For years The Colts had a stranglehold on things which changed once quarterback Peyton Manning sat out the entire 2011 season. The Texans won their first AFC South Title last year in spite of all of the turmoil at the quarterback position. Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Schaub missed the last six games of the regular season after suffering a Lisfranc injury to his right foot. Quarterback Matt Leinart took over and he was injured in his first game against The Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans rallied around rookie quarterback T.J. Yates as they won a playoff game for the first time in franchise history and gave The Baltimore Ravens all that they could handle in The AFC Divisional Round.

Texans went from the 30th ranked defense in 2010, to the second ranked unit in The NFL in 2011. Wade Phillips became the team’s new defensive coordinator as Houston switched from the 4-3 defensive scheme to the 3-4. The Texans lost defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams in free agency to The Buffalo Bills. The Texans still have Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Cushing who led the team in tackles last season with 114. Cushing has great range which allows him to cover the field from sideline to sideline. Houston found a gem in the first round of The 2011 NFL Draft when they selected defensive end J.J. Watt out of Wisconsin. Watt is a hybrid as he can line up in multiple positions in a defensive scheme which is something that is coveted in a 3-4 scheme. Last season, Watt totaled 56 tackles and 5.5 sacks as a rookie and those numbers should increase now that he has gotten his feet wet.

The real test for The Texans will be late in the season when they have three consecutive road games against The Detroit Lions, Titans, and New England Patriots respectively.

The Titans barely missed making the playoffs last season in their first season under head coach Mike Munchak. Now this young team is looking for bigger things in 2012. Quarterback Matthew Hasselbeck is entering his second second with The Titans and this time he has the benefit of a full training camp. Hasselbeck threw for over 3,500 last season, but The Titans appear to be ready to hand over the keys to second year quarterback Jake Locker. Locker was The Titans first-round pick in 2011 out of The University of Washington and the future could be now in Nashville. However, the engine that makes this offense run is running back Chris Johnson. There has been a rapid decline in Johnson’s production since he ran for 2,006 yards in 2009. In the last two seasons, Johnson has ran for a combined 2,411 yards. As a team last season, The Titans finished 31st in rushing offense which is far cry from Munchak’s Pro Football Hall of Fame career as an offensive lineman with The Oilers/Titans franchise.

The Titans lost cornerback Cortland Finnegan to free agency, but they are still deep in the secondary. Third-year pro Alterraun Verner has star potential as a cornerback. The Titans also have safeties Michael Griffin and Jordan Babineux, so it is not a good idea for opposing offenses to try them in the secondary.

The schedule this season is indeed very tough for The Titans. In their first four games, Tennessee will play The Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Lions, and Texans so it won’t take us long to see what kind of team that Munchak has in 2012.

A new era has begun in Indianapolis. Quarterback Peyton Manning had cast a large shadow over this organization and when you put a franchise on your back in the manner that he did, you absolutely deserve it. The Colts went 2-14 in 2011 and thus they earned the first overall pick of last spring’s NFL Draft. It was a no-brainer that The Colts would select Stanford University quarterback Andrew Luck with their selection. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. rated Luck as the best pro prospect since John Elway. Luck will do his part to be the best Andrew Luck that he can be and not worry about filling the shoes of Manning.

The Colts looked very out of place last season and wholesale changes were made. Ryan Grigson has taken over for Bill Polian as The Colts general manager while Chuck Pagano is the new head coach. Owner Jim Irsay knows that he must rebuild this team to get them back to playoff form and he must rely on both old and new parts in 2012. 

Luck will have veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne to throw to. Wayne saw his streak of seven consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 yards receiving come to an end last year and at 33-years of age he is looking to start a new streak. Luck also has rookie tight end Coby Fleener who was one of his main targets at Stanford to throw to which should help Luck in getting assimilated to The NFL.

Pagano is in the process of switching The Colts defensive scheme from the 4-3 to the 3-4 which should be interesting as Pro Bowl defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will now be asked to become stand-up pass rushers as opposed to down linemen. We’ve seen in the past that players making the adjustment get injured. In 2006, former Dallas Cowboys defensive end Greg Ellis ruptured his Achilles tendon. In 2009, former Green Bay Packers defensive end Aaron Kampman suffered an ACL injury. Last season, Bills defensive end Mario Williams suffered a torn pectoral muscle while he was a member of The Texans. It is just funny how these injuries happen to defensive ends that are attempting to make the adjustment; hopefully Mathis and Freeney can avoid the jinx.

The Colts will be treading water this season as their roster is not that deep, but they should be more competitive than they were a season ago. Once again this is a rebuilding process in Indy and it will take some time.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are fighting an uphill battle in The AFC South. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert put up very pedestrian like numbers in his rookie campaign as he only threw for 2,214 yards in 15 games in 2011. Jacksonville had the worst offense in football last season and that trend might continue in 2012. Pro Bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew is looking for a bigger payday and subsequently he has failed to report to training camp which can’t sit
well with new Jaguars owner Shahid Khan and new head coach Mike Mularkey. The Jaguars drafted wide receiver Justin Blackmon in the first round of The NFL Draft and it will be interesting to see if he and Gabbert can develop a repoire, especially since Blackmon was the last first-round pick to sign a contract.

This will be a long season in Jacksonville. With dwindling attendance and a poor team being put out on the field, it will only be a matter of time before you start to hear rumblings about this team possibly moving to Los Angeles.