2015 AFC West Projections

X-Denver Broncos 12-4

With quarterback Peyton Manning on board, the expectation level for the Denver Broncos has increased. Manning has been the Broncos starting quarterback for the past three seasons which has led to an AFC West Title in each year. But the Broncos are more concerned with with winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the third time in franchise history. John Fox was the Broncos head coach in each of the last four seasons and each year there he took Denver to the playoffs. But Broncos executive vice president of football operations John Elway wants a championship and he felt like Denver was not going to win one on Fox’s watch which resulted in his departure.

Elway fired Fox and he has replaced him with former Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak who was also his former Broncos teammate. And Kubiak’s job with the Broncos is rather simple; get to the Super Bowl and win it. But Kubiak must find a way to keep Manning healthy. Manning is 39-years of age and the injuries are beginning to catch up with him and thus it is difficult for the Broncos to expect him to carry the team like he has done in the past.

Late last season running back C.J. Anderson emerged as a viable option for the Broncos coming out of the backfield and he should become the feature back in Denver this season. While Kubiak was the head coach of the Texans, his team’s were typically one of the better rushing squads in the National Football League which will benefit Manning as the Broncos need to keep his arm fresh coming down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs when the temperature drops in Denver. The Broncos won’t have the services of offensive tackle Ryan Clady for the upcoming season as he suffered a torn ACL in the off-season which will put more pressure on rookie offensive tackle Ty Sambrailo to protect the blind side of the veteran Manning.

After failing to come to an agreement on a long-term deal, the Broncos placed the franchise tag on Pro Bowl wide receiver DeMaryius Thomas who has been Manning’s best option in the passing game over the last few seasons and they will need that to be the case once again in 2015. The Broncos elected to allow tight end Julius Thomas leave in free agency as he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. But the Broncos didn’t waste anytime finding Thomas’ replacement as they signed veteran tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels is entering his tenth year in the National Football League and he is someone that is really familiar with Kubiak’s offensive system as they spent eight years together with the Texans.

Kubiak is switching the Broncos base defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4, and under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, Denver has the potential to have a good year defensively. The 3-4 defense is predicated by the ability of the linebackers to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and the Broncos have the personnel that can rush the passer. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware has been one of the best pass rushers of this era as only 13 players have more sacks than him in NFL history since the sack was made an official stat in 1982. Outside linebacker Von Miller has only played four seasons in the NFL, but already he has 49 career sacks, and his numbers should continue to rise in Phillips’ defense. The Broncos drafted outside linebacker Shane Ray in the first round of the 2015 National Football League Draft and he should be a candidate to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year this season due to the fact that he will have plenty of opportunities to sack the quarterback from the attention that Ware and Miller will receive.

The Broncos have three tough games to begin the season as they will host the Baltimore Ravens before they travel to meet the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions, but at the end of the day they should still be the team to beat in the AFC West.

Y-San Diego Chargers 10-6

The last two seasons for the San Diego Chargers have produced 9-7 records. But unlike 2013, the Chargers had to watch the playoffs from home this past January. This off-season has been a turbulent one for the Chargers as the rumors have been rampant in regards to them possibly leaving San Diego in favor of Los Angeles if they are unable to get a new stadium. And leading up the 2015 National Football League Draft, there were also rumors that the Chargers were looking to shop quarterback Philip Rivers. As of right now, the Chargers appear to be staying in San Diego while cooler heads have prevailed in regards to the front office in San Diego as far as their stance on Rivers.

In two seasons under Chargers head coach Mike McCoy, Rivers has enjoyed career-highs in his completion percentage as he has been close to completing 70 percent of his passes. But Rivers did throw 18 interceptions last season which was part of the reason why the Chargers were unable to reach the postseason. The Chargers do possess one of the best passing attacks in the NFL as they have match-up nightmares across the board for their opponents which was evident by the fact that they possessed the tenth best passing offense in the league last season. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is set to embark on his third season in the NFL and at 6’2″, he has that rare blend of size and speed. It might not seem like it, but wide receiver Malcom Floyd is entering his 12 season with the Chargers and in that time he has become one of Rivers’ most dependable targets. But tight end Antonio Gates is still the main go-to-guy for Rivers. Gates is 35-years of age, and he may not have world class speed, but he continues to be a tremendous route runner while he knows how to use his 12 years of experience in the NFL to his benefit. Gates will miss the first four games of the upcoming season as he will serve a suspension that was handed down by the National Football League for a failed drug test.

As good as the Chargers passing offense has been for them recently, the same cannot be said about their rushing attack that was 30th in the National Football League last season. Once the Chargers parted ways with running back LaDanian Tomlinson in 2009, they drafted running back Ryan Matthews who never lived up to the lofty expectations that were placed on him. And after five injury plagued seasons, the Chargers have decided to move on from Matthews who is now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chargers did use their first round pick this past spring on running back Melvin Gordon who could be the home run hitter coming out of their backfield that they’ve lacked for a few seasons. Gordon is as fast as they come and he will be tough to defend in open space; especially on screen passes.

On the Chargers offensive line, they have a pair of bookend offensive tackles in King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker who will lead a unit that should more than hold their own as far as being able to keep Rivers’ uniform clean this season.

The Chargers were ninth in the National Football League last season in total defense as they possess a very underrated core of linebackers. Outside linebackers Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu have an excellent presence as edge rushers while inside linebackers Manti Te’o and Donald Butler possess good instincts as far as reading plays along with being sure tacklers.

As long as the Chargers are able to maintain balance on both sides of the football along with playing with a sense of urgency, they’ll find themselves in the mix in the AFC West. Four of the Chargers last five games of the regular season will be against their rivals from the AFC West including two meetings with the Denver Broncos who have won the division in each of the last four years as San Diego looks to win their first division title since 2009.

Kansas City Chiefs 9-7

After a surprise trip to the postseason in 2013, the Kansas City Chiefs barely missed out on the playoffs last year. And Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is hopeful that this year will mark the first time since 1997 that Kansas City will have three consecutive winning seasons. But that won’t be easy.

Last season the Chiefs were 25th in the National Football League in total offense as everything that they do relies on running back Jamaal Charles. Four of the last five seasons have seen Charles carry the football at least 200 times and at some point it will begin to take its toll on him. The Chiefs passing attack last year was putrid at best as they went the entire season without having a wide receiver record a receiving touchdown which is unfathomable in the current pass happy NFL.

This off-season Reid brought a familiar face to Kansas City in wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. When Reid was the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, he used a first round pick on Maclin in 2009. In six years with the Eagles, Maclin had 36 receiving touchdowns while he was ninth in the NFL last season in receiving yards with 1,318 which is a breath of fresh air to the Chiefs as their top wide receiver in 2014 (Dwayne Bowe) had just 754 yards. And the icing on the cake for the Chiefs signing Maclin is that he is a native of Missouri. Maclin was born in Chesterfield, Missouri while he played his college football at the University of Missouri. Maclin will more than likely become the new best friend of Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith who threw just 18 touchdown passes last season. And overall, Smith doesn’t have a reputation as far as being as big passer which means that you can expect short passes to Maclin and Charles as they’ll be called upon to create yards after the catch.

Defensively the Chiefs were seventh in the National Football League last season in total defense and this unit has the ability to keep this team in playoff contention this year. Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton has plenty of beef on the defensive line in the form of Dontari Poe and Jaye Howard. The presence of Poe at nose tackle allows inside linebacker Derrick Johnson to roam free while the Chiefs possess a trio of quality edge rushers in outside linebackers, Tamba Hali, Dee Ford, and Justin Houston.

Last year strong safety Eric Berry was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Berry underwent cancer treatment and last month it was announced that he is cancer free which is not only an inspiration for the people around him, but for all of us. And to top it all off, Berry is one of the best safeties around as he is a three-time Pro Bowl selection since coming to the National Football League in 2010. The Chiefs have depth behind Berry as they signed former Oakland Raiders Tyvon Branch while free safety Husain Abdullah has good coverage skills. The Chiefs drafted cornerback Steven Nelson in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft. Nelson could have gone in the draft earlier as he possesses tremendous ball skills which will be tested in a division that has Pro Bowl quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers.

The schedule makers in the NFL didn’t do the Chiefs any favors as three of their first four games of the upcoming season are against teams that made the playoffs last year and they’ll be fighting an uphill battle all season long in the AFC.

Oakland Raiders 4-12

The once proud Oakland Raiders have now become a joke in the National Football League. At one point the Raiders lived by the moniker of “Commitment to Excellence”, but they have failed to post a winning season since 2002. And in that time the Raiders have gone through nine different head coaches with none of them lasting three seasons. The Raiders have also seen their fair share of early misses at the NFL Draft which has led to the extended period of futility. And to make matters worse for the Raiders, they are not sure where they’ll be playing football soon as Oakland, Los Angeles, and San Antonio are all vying for the the silver and black to call their city home.

It’s the same old song for the Raiders as they will begin this season with a new head coach. Jack Del Rio spent 11 seasons in the NFL as a linebacker along with nine years as the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars where he compiled a record of 68-71. Del Rio will bring accountability to the Raiders, but will he be able to do what so many head coaches before him have failed to do which is to win in Oakland?

Del Rio and the Raiders have a solid young quarterback to build around in Derek Carr. As a rookie in 2014, Carr passed for 3,270 yards with 21 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. Carr has a very solid and accurate arm, but if he played for a better team, he would have the potential to be a household name. The Raiders do view Carr as their franchise quarterback which is why they’ve put some emphasis into building a team around him.

The Raiders used their first-round pick of the 2015 National Football League Draft on wide receiver Amari Cooper and it will be imperative for he and Carr to develop some chemistry. The Raiders must also find a way to develop some production out of their running game. The Raiders were last in the NFL last season in rushing and they have not had a running back gain 1,000 yards or more in a season since Darren McFadden in 2010. McFadden left the Raiders this off-season to join the Dallas Cowboys and it could a running-back-by-committee this season for Oakland that will feature George Atkinson III, Michael Dyer, and Latavius Murray.

The glory days of the Raiders organization saw them have a ton of continuity on their offensive line which is no longer the case as it has been a revolving at each position on the line. In time, Del Rio will build up the offensive line, but this year’s unit lacks talent.

In 2014, the Raiders were 21st in the National Football League in total defense as they allowed eight opponents to score at least 30 points against them. The Raiders do have a building block in outside linebacker Khalil Mack, but one man cannot do it all by himself.

The Raiders might not win that many games in 2015, but under Del Rio, they won’t be an easy out, and they should improve as the season goes along as he must change the losing culture in the locker room.

X-Clinched Division

Y-Clinched Wild Card