2014 AFC South Projections

X-Indianapolis Colts 10-6

With two seasons as the starting quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts under his belt, Andrew Luck has built a reputation as a prime time player in the National Football League. Luck has led the Colts to consecutive 11-5 regular seasons which has resulted in two AFC South Titles. Luck will continue to progress as a quarterback and as a leader for the Colts, but what about the supporting cast around him in Indianapolis?

Last year the Colts were 20th in rushing offense in the NFL and you can expect to see a running back by committee in 2014. Last year Colts general manager Ryan Grigson gave up a first round pick in the 2014 National Football League Draft to obtain running back Trent Richardson from the Cleveland Browns. What Grigson and the Colts got from Richardson last season in 14 games was a paltry 2.9 yards per carry. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw was limited to just three games last season as a result of injuries which makes it tough to be optimistic about the Colts running game for 2014.

Last season as a member of the New York Giants, wide receiver Hakeem Nicks was an enigma. Nicks was in the final year of his contract with the Giants, but he was never able to answer the bell. Nicks signed with the Colts this off-season, but will he be the player that he was in 2011 when he nearly gained 1,200 receiving yards or the player that was only a shell of himself in 2013? With wide receiver Reggie Wayne returning from a knee injury, Luck will need another option on offense to offset wide receiver T.Y. Hilton in the passing game. But will Nicks or Wayne be able to do it?

With veteran outside linebacker sitting out the first four games of the National Football League season as he serves a league mandated suspension for violating their drug policy, it is imperative for outside linebacker Bjorn Werner to show the ability that made him a first round pick in Indianapolis last year. Last season as a rookie, Werner was limited to 2.5 sacks and he will need to be up for the challenge early and often in 2014.

For Colts head coach Chuck Pagono his team must navigate through a tough schedule to begin the season. The Colts will be on the road this Sunday to take on the Denver Broncos who are the defending AFC Champions. The Colts will be at home in Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles who won the NFC East last season before they travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars who will a very formidable opponent. The Colts should win the AFC South for a second consecutive year, but it will not be easy.

Houston Texans 8-8

The old saying is that everything is bigger in the state of Texas. Last season the Houston Texans started off with Super Bowl expectations. After winning their first two games of the season the Texans would lose their last 14 games of the season and wholesale changes were made. After eight seasons as the head coach of the Texans, Gary Kubiak was fired and replaced by former Penn State University head football coach Bill O’Brien. Like Kubiak, longtime Texans starting quarterback Matt Schaub was shown the door as well as he was traded to the Oakland Raiders due to the fact that O’Brien is looking to start fresh.

The Texans began last season expecting to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, but instead they got the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Texans selected defensive end Jadeveon Clowney with first overall pick and he joins a defense in Houston that could be extremely special in 2014. The Texans defense last year ranked 7th in the NFL in total defense and they may be better this year. Romeo Crennel is taking over as the Texans new defensive coordinator and he will run the same 3-4 defensive scheme as former Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Along with Clowney you can expect Texans defensive end J.J. Watt to line up in multiple spots in the defensive front seven as they could be the scariest combination of edge rushers this season in the National Football League. Along with outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, it is not far-fetched to believe that the Texans could lead the league in the sacks for the upcoming season.

With running backs Arian Foster, Andre Brown, and Alfred Blue, “AAA”, the Texans will be a very physical team. For now O’Brien has entrusted Ryan Fitzpatrick to be the starting quarterback in Houston and this team can have some success with him leading the way this season as long as he decides not to play hero ball. But just prior to the end of training camp, the Texans were able to acquire quarterback Ryan Mallett from the New England Patriots. O’Brien was a former assistant coach with the Patriots and he is familiar with Mallett who should be ready to take over for Fitzpatrick at some point during the season.

Wide receiver Andre Johnson is entering his 12th season with the Texans where he as at times been frustrated. But if Johnson is willing to buy into O’Brien’s system he could have another Pro Bowl caliber season.

The Texans will not face a playoff team from last season until they meet the Colts in Week 6 and a fast start in Houston could put people on the O’Brien bandwagon as a quick turnaround could be on the horizon.

Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10

The downward spiral of the Jacksonville Jaguars began in 2008. The Jaguars have not had a winning record or playoff appearance since 2007 and thus their all-time record is now sub-.500. Last year was the first season for Jags head coach Gus Bradley. Jacksonville began the season with a record of 0-8, but they became tougher in the second part of the campaign to finish 4-12. Bradley is hopeful that the second half of the 2013 NFL season will carry over to the start of 2014.

The Jaguars are optimistic that they finally have their franchise quarterback in Blake Bortles. The Jaguars used their first round pick on Bortles, but veteran quarterback Chad Henne is not in a rush to hand over the reigns. Bortles is still a bit raw and more than likely you can expect Henne to be the Jaguars starting quarterback at the start of the season.

The Jaguars parted ways with longtime running back Maurice Jones-Drew who is now a member of the Oakland Raiders. More than likely Bradley and the Jags will have a running back by committee this season with veteran backs Jordan Todman and Toby Gerhart along with rookie Storm Johnson, but it can be effective. The Jaguars also have young wide receivers in Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, and Ace Sanders. But if one player is able to emerge from this trio as an impact player it will help Bradley in Jacksonville.

Offensive tackle Luke Joeckel was injured for the majority of 2013, but if he is able to return healthy this season to join veteran guard Zane Beadles on the offensive line, the Jags could have something cooking.

The Jaguars defense is full of veterans who built their reputations in other NFL cities. But for players like defensive tackle Red Bryant who helped the Seattle Seahawks win the Super Bowl last season it is a chance for them to show the football world that they still have what it takes.

More than likely the Jaguars will not be a playoff team this season, but they will make life miserable to each team that they will face.

Tennessee Titans 5-11

This year will be like no other for the Tennessee Titans franchise. The Titans will begin this season without former owner Bud Adams who passed away last October. Adams was the only owner that the Titans ever had dating back to their time as the Houston Oilers. Adams’ daughter Susie Smith is now running the Titans, but that is not the only change in Nashville. Ken Whisenhunt is the new Titans head coach and he is looking to get the team back to the postseason for the first time since 2008 and in the process he is looking to mold this team in his own image.

Titans quarterback Jake Locker has been an enigma. The Titans drafted Locker in the first round of the of the 2011 National Football League Draft. Locker has all of the tools to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL, but he has been unable to stay healthy. The Titans did not pick up the option on Locker’s contract which means that he will be playing for his job in 2014.

Longtime Titans running back Chris Johnson was let go this off-season and it will be a combo of veteran running back Shonn Greene and rookie running back Bishop Sankey in the backfield in Nashville.

Like Locker at quarterback, the Titans have talent a wide receiver, but it is just a matter of it all coming together. Justin Hunter, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright could all do special things at wide receiver for the Titans this year, but it is just a matter of everyone being on the same page.

This season the Titans will have a good mix of youth and age on their offensive line with a pair of youngsters in offensive tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Chance Warmack along with veteran offensive tackles Michael Roos and Michael Oher and they should be up for the challenge of keeping Locker healthy.

Whisenhunt’s arrival in Nashville means that they Titans will be running a 3-4 defense just like he employed when he was the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. This will be a difficult year for the Titans because they are transitioning their new defensive scheme, but veteran outside linebackers Kameron Wimbley and Shaun Phillips could cushion the blow.

Three of the Titans first four games in 2014 are against teams that made the playoffs in 2013. The Titans should struggle this year, but towards the end of the campaign Whisenhunt’s plan will take flight.

X-Clinched Division

Source: Pro-football-reference.com